суббота, 1 октября 2011 г.

искусство прикладной оценки

Aswath Damodaran on risk-free rates in current environment
Если немного вырвать из контекста: 
The risk free rate is a reflection of what people expect in the overall economy for the foreseeable future. Harking back to an equation that I have used before, note that the risk free rate is the sum of two market expectations: an expectation of inflation for the future and an expectation of real growth.
Risk free rate = Expected inflation + Expected real growth
Viewed through these lens, it is quite clear that a very low risk free rate is not generally compatible with a vibrant high growth economy. In fact, the biggest factor driving down ten-year bond rates this year from 3.29% to 2% has been the increasing pessimism about global economic health, pushing down both expected real growth and expected inflation. That is the basis for my argument that the Fed has become a side player in this game and that its push for lower risk free rates is actually at odds with its desire that the US return to healthy economic growth.

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